Risk Assessment Report: Escalating Humanitarian Crisis and Political Instability in Sudan and Chad
Meta Description: "Comprehensive risk assessment of the escalating humanitarian crisis and political instability in Sudan and Chad. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the potential risks, their impact, and proposed mitigation measures."
Survivors of Sudan Violence Seek Refuge in Chad: A Humanitarian Crisis Unfolds
Description: The escalating conflict in Sudan's Darfur region drives hundreds of thousands of people to seek safety in neighboring Chad. With increasing needs and challenges, the situation is evolving into a major humanitarian crisis.
When the latest wave of conflict swept across Sudan in mid-April, the Darfur region had already grappled with years of war and ethnic strife. The current hostilities have reignited community tensions throughout Darfur, particularly in El Geneina.
Due to non-stop fighting, ethnic conflicts, and frequent assaults on innocent people, a large number of individuals have been forced to flee to Adré, a town situated in eastern Chad. Adré, like other towns along the Chad-Sudan border, is struggling to accommodate the sudden and significant arrival of refugees, as the availability of basic necessities such as food and medical assistance was already limited before their arrival.
Since 2021, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has been extending support in Adré. However, over the last three months, their operations have witnessed significant amplification to enhance local healthcare capacities and improve care quality as Sudanese refugees, many bearing the physical scars of their journey from El Geneina, keep pouring in.
Towards the end of May and the beginning of June, West Darfur experienced a sudden increase in violent incidents. Unfortunately, only a small number of the wounded were able to seek medical assistance at the emergency surgical facility set up by MSF and the Chadian Ministry of Health at Adré's hospital. However, the situation took a turn for the worse on June 15 when the hospital received 261 patients who had been injured in the conflict in just one day.
The hospital in Adré witnessed one of the most substantial casualty influxes in MSF's history between June 15-17, receiving 858 war-wounded individuals. With the majority being men, the patients mostly bore gunshot wounds. Among them was a smaller portion of women and children, with the youngest patient being just two months old and the oldest over 70.
There is a surge in violent attacks that are specifically directed toward certain ethnic groups, particularly the Masalit community. Numerous patients have shared that they were subjected to physical assault by Arab militias solely because of their ethnicity. Several reports confirm that these violent attacks occur frequently and that snipers are present, making it dangerous for individuals to even acquire basic necessities such as water and supplies.
The escalating humanitarian crisis is of growing concern. Around 200 wounded individuals remain in the Adré hospital, requiring long-term medical care. A sudden surge of refugees has caused a severe strain on all resources: medical care, shelter, food, water, and sanitation in a region where the local community is already struggling to meet its basic needs.
With an estimated 260,000 new Sudanese refugees in eastern Chad, a significant amount of humanitarian aid will be necessary in the long run to support the most vulnerable.
The Humanitarian Crisis in Sudan: A Deep Dive into Its Magnitude and Impact
The ongoing armed conflict in Sudan is escalating an already severe humanitarian crisis, with over three million individuals displaced, leading to potential instability at both national and regional levels.
The situation in Sudan is on the precipice of a civil war due to the violent clashes that began on April 15 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group. The violence has intensified the humanitarian crisis in the region. While neighboring nations have accepted hundreds of thousands of refugees, experts express concerns that a long-standing conflict may lead Sudan into a civil war and destabilize the region.
The Conflict's Catalysts
The SAF and RSF, who were allies instrumental in the overthrow of dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, are now at odds. Following al-Bashir's removal, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of SAF took over as the interim head of state, supported by RSF General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). A second coup orchestrated in 2021 by the duo overthrew Sudan's interim government. However, international pressure to transition towards a civilian government led to a violent revolt by Hemedti in April 2023 when the RSF was asked to merge into the national army. The RSF, with its strong presence in Darfur, has taken control of multiple towns throughout Sudan, while the battle for Khartoum, the capital, continues.
Efforts to mediate peace talks by international players, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, have so far failed to yield a long-term resolution, leaving a bleak outlook for the ongoing conflict.
The Humanitarian Impact
Prior to the current conflict, Sudan was already grappling with a humanitarian crisis. Over 15 million people were severely food insecure, with more than 3.7 million internally displaced persons, and the country was sheltering about 1.3 million refugees, mainly from South Sudan. The resurgence of violence has worsened the crisis, as noted by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, describing it as "catastrophic." The UN refugee agency reports that more than three million individuals have been newly displaced since April, with at least 780 people killed and roughly 5,800 injured as of June 3, though actual figures could be significantly higher.
The escalating conflict is decimating Sudan's infrastructure, especially in Khartoum and surrounding areas. Health facilities, prisons, and other establishments in residential areas have been targeted by air strikes and shelling. The possibility of disease outbreaks, coupled with limited access to clean water for tens of millions of individuals, adds another layer to the unfolding disaster.
The Refugee Exodus
Over 255,000 individuals, making up 39% of the new refugees, have sought refuge in Egypt. Almost 150,000 South Sudanese, who previously fled to Sudan, have now returned home. Other refugees have relocated to the Central African Republic, Chad, and Ethiopia, all of which already have significant populations of refugees and internally displaced persons.
The crisis has drawn varied responses from neighboring countries, most of whom are already dealing with their own internal crises. Five out of the seven nations bordering Sudan have recently experienced internal conflict, adding to the complexity of handling an influx of refugees. The crisis has also added pressure to regional economic cooperation on Nile River water resources and various oil pipelines that traverse Sudan.
International Organizations' Response
An assembly of agencies, funds, and programs, collectively known as a UN Country Team (UNCT), has been operating in Sudan for over a decade. Throughout the first three quarters of 2022, the United Nations and its partners have provided aid to over nine million people across the country. Despite this, the conflict has forced the UN and aid organizations to either temporarily halt or scale back operations in the country. The United Nations's call for $2.6 billion in aid for Sudan, an increase from $1.8 billion at the end of 2022, has only been 22 percent funded.
Risk Assessment Report: Escalating Humanitarian Crisis in Sudan and Chad
Event Context and Details:
The Darfur region of Sudan, already grappling with years of war and ethnic strife, has seen a resurgence of conflict since mid-April. This has reignited community tensions, particularly in El Geneina, leading to a significant displacement of individuals fleeing to Adré, a town in eastern Chad. Adré and other towns along the Chad-Sudan border struggle to accommodate the sudden influx of refugees, straining already limited resources. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has supported Adré since 2021, but the recent surge in refugees has necessitated a significant expansion of their operations. The escalating humanitarian crisis, marked by a surge in violent attacks targeted at specific ethnic groups, is of growing concern. [Source: ReliefWeb]
Additional Information from CFR: The prolonged conflict in Sudan has intensified the pre-existing humanitarian crisis, displacing over three million people and pushing the nation to the brink of civil war. Fighting erupted in April between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), further destabilizing the region. The crisis was worsened by the failure of international efforts to broker peace, leaving the conflict unresolved. According to UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, the humanitarian condition, which was already critical with over 3.7 million displaced individuals and 15 million people facing food insecurity, has now escalated to a catastrophic level.
Over 255,000 refugees have fled to Egypt, while nearly 150,000 South Sudanese who had previously sought refuge in Sudan have now returned home. Other refugees have migrated to the Central African Republic, Chad, and Ethiopia. The crisis has elicited various responses from neighboring countries, many dealing with their own internal problems. International organizations have attempted to help, but the ongoing conflict has forced many of them to halt or scale down their operations. Despite the UN's call for $2.6 billion in aid for Sudan, only 22% of the target has been funded [source: CFR]
Insights & Analysis:
- The conflict in Sudan is escalating an already severe humanitarian crisis, with over three million individuals displaced.
- The violence has intensified the humanitarian crisis in the region, leading to potential instability at both national and regional levels.
- The conflict has forced a significant number of individuals to flee to Adré, a town situated in eastern Chad, which is struggling to accommodate the sudden and significant arrival of refugees.
- The crisis has drawn varied responses from neighboring countries, most of whom are already dealing with their own internal crises.
- The United Nations and its partners have provided aid to over nine million people across the country. Despite this, the conflict has forced the UN and aid organizations to either temporarily halt or scale back operations in the country.
Risk Assessment:
- Risk: Continued and escalating conflict & ethnic tensions in Sudan.
- Likelihood: 5/5 (Almost Certain)
- Impact: 5/5 (Catastrophic)
- Risk Rating: 25/25 (Extreme)
- Justification: The ongoing conflict in Darfur could lead to further violence and instability, posing a significant risk to the safety and security of the population. The targeted attacks on specific ethnic groups could exacerbate ethnic tensions and lead to further conflict, potentially destabilizing the region further.
- Risk: Worsening humanitarian crisis due to conflict and displacement.
- Likelihood: 5/5 (Almost Certain)
- Impact: 5/5 (Catastrophic)
- Risk Rating: 25/25 (Extreme)
- Justification: The sudden influx of refugees in Chad could exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis, straining resources and leading to shortages of food, medical assistance, and other basic necessities.
- Risk: Increased strain on resources in Chad due to the influx of refugees.
- Likelihood: 5/5 (Almost Certain)
- Impact: 4/5 (Major)
- Risk Rating: 20/25 (High)
- Justification: The influx of wounded individuals could strain the health infrastructure in Chad, potentially leading to a health crisis
- Risk: Potential for regional instability due to conflict and displacement
- Likelihood: 4/5 (Likely)
- Impact: 5/5 (Catastrophic)
- Risk Rating: 20/25 (High)
- Justification: The crisis could potentially impact the broader security situation in the Sahel region. The influx of refugees and the potential spread of violence could destabilize other countries in the region, potentially leading to a broader regional crisis.
- Risk: Potential for increased international intervention due to conflict and humanitarian crisis
- Likelihood: 4/5 (Likely)
- Impact: 3/5 (Moderate)
- Risk Rating: 12/25 (Medium)
- Justification: The escalating violence and humanitarian crisis are likely to draw international attention and could potentially impact the geopolitical dynamics in the region. The situation could also affect the operations of international organizations, such as Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), which are providing critical support in the region.
Mitigation Measures:
- International mediation and peacekeeping efforts: International actors, including the United Nations, African Union, and regional powers, should intensify their mediation efforts to bring about a ceasefire and a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
- Humanitarian aid: International organizations and donor countries should increase their humanitarian aid to both Sudan and Chad to help address the immediate needs of the displaced population.
- Support for Chad: International actors should provide additional support to Chad to help it accommodate the influx of refugees, including financial aid, resources, and logistical support.
- Long-term solutions: Efforts should be made to address the root causes of the conflict and displacement, including political instability, ethnic tensions, and economic challenges.
Geopolitical & Global Implications:
The conflict and humanitarian crisis in Sudan and Chad could have significant geopolitical implications. It could potentially affect regional stability, international relations, and efforts to combat insurgency in the region. The crisis could also strain resources in Chad and other neighboring countries, potentially leading to further instability and conflict.
Predictive Analysis:
Given the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Sudan and Chad, it is likely that the situation will continue to escalate in the near future, leading to further displacement of people and potential regional instability. The crisis could also strain resources in Chad and other neighboring countries, potentially leading to further conflict and instability. The international community's response will play a crucial role in mitigating these risks and addressing the humanitarian crisis.
Opinion and Commentary:
The escalating conflict and humanitarian crisis in Sudan and Chad present significant challenges for both the countries involved and the international community. The mitigation measures proposed, while necessary, may face obstacles due to the complexity of the situation, the scale of the crisis, and the potential for further escalation of the conflict. It is imperative for the international community to not only respond to the immediate crisis but also address the underlying causes of the conflict and displacement to ensure a sustainable resolution.
Methodology:
The risk assessment was conducted using a systematic and comprehensive approach that involved identifying potential risks, analyzing their potential impact and likelihood, and assigning scores based on these factors. This process was based on the information provided in the report, as well as historical context and trends. The likelihood and impact of each risk were evaluated on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest, using a 5x5 risk matrix methodology. The overall risk rating was determined by multiplying the likelihood and impact scores, providing a comprehensive view of the potential severity of each risk.
The scores and ratings were determined based on a combination of qualitative and quantitative data, including news reports, expert analysis, and historical context. This approach ensured a holistic understanding of the situation, considering the specific details of the current events and the broader geopolitical and socio-economic context in Sudan and Chad.
Mitigation measures were proposed based on best practices and potential strategies to address each risk, providing a forward-looking component to the assessment that aims to guide future actions to manage and reduce the identified risks.
- Impact Score Justification: The impact score was determined by considering the potential consequences of the identified risks. This included the potential for loss of life, the severity of the humanitarian crisis, the potential for further conflict and instability, and the potential geopolitical implications. The high impact score reflects the severity of these potential consequences.
- Likelihood Score Justification: The likelihood score was determined by considering the probability of the identified risks occurring. This was based on current trends, historical context, and expert analysis. The high likelihood score reflects the ongoing nature of the conflict and the worsening humanitarian crisis, as well as the historical precedent for such crises in the region.
- Risk Rating Justification: The risk rating was determined by combining the impact and likelihood scores. The high risk rating reflects the significant potential impact of the identified risks and the high probability of their occurrence.
This methodology provides a structured and systematic approach to risk assessment, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of the potential risks and their potential impact and likelihood. However, it is important to note that risk assessment is inherently uncertain and involves a degree of subjectivity. Therefore, the scores and ratings should be interpreted as indicative of the potential severity and likelihood of the identified risks, rather than as definitive predictions.
Sources:
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF). (2023, August 2). Wounded people arrive in Chad to escape horrific violence in Sudan. ReliefWeb. https://reliefweb.int/report/chad/wounded-people-arrive-chad-escape-horrific-violence-sudan
(2023, July 12). Crisis escalates on Chad-Sudan border, thousands flee violence. Sudan Tribune. https://sudantribune.com/article275063/
UNHCR. (2023, July 28). UNHCR highlights difficulties in aid delivery amid escalating conflict in Sudan. UNHCR - The UN Refugee Agency. https://www.unhcr.org/news/briefing-notes/unhcr-highlights-difficulties-aid-delivery-amid-escalating-conflict-sudan
Council on Foreign Relations. (2023, July 28). To What Extent Is Sudan's Humanitarian Crisis Worsening? CFR - Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-extent-sudans-humanitarian-crisis
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