IEP Future Trends News Letter 5/23/2023

May 23, 2023

IEP Future Trends News Letter 5/23/2023

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May 23, 2023

◯ Conflict ◯ Development ◯ Social ◯ Economics ◯ Politics

IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION

Here's what you need to know: Russia and West wrestle over energy assets amid Ukraine invasion, South Korea and Germany to sign information pact to boost defence cooperation, tens of thousands protest against planned Israeli judicial overhaul, China holds lending rates steady, Zimbabwe pardons over 4,000 prisoners to decongest jails, Ireland set to become first country with mandatory health warnings on alcohol.

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SPECIAL EDITION: UKRAINE

Russia says Ukrainian city of Bakhmut captured. Russia claimed to have fully captured the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which would mark an end to the longest and bloodiest battle of the 15-month war.

Russia and West wrestle over energy assets amid Ukraine invasion. Russia took control of the Russian assets of Finland's Fortum and Germany's Uniper, which both operate power plants in Russia, warning it could seize more. The Kremlin said the decision was taken in response to the "aggressive actions of unfriendly countries".

Russian parliament chief proposes Polish truck ban. Russia's top lawmaker called for a ban on Polish trucks transiting Russian territory, and for Poland to compensate Moscow financially for what he said was the Soviet rebuilding of the east European country after World War Two.

POLITICS

South Korea, Germany to sign information pact to boost defence cooperation. South Korea and Germany will sign an agreement aimed at protecting military secrets to boost defence cooperation, after the two leaders met in Seoul.

US to sign strategic pacts with two Pacific states, hopes for third in weeks. The US will sign strategic pacts with the Pacific Island states of Palau and Micronesia. They hope to sign a third agreement with the Marshall Islands in the coming weeks.

UN chief says it's time to reform Security Council, Bretton Woods. Guterres said that at the G7 summit there was a ‘growing consciousness among developing countries that not enough was being done to reform outdated institutions or remove the frustrations of the Global South’.

Russia seeks to strengthen ties with Muslim world. The Russia-Islamic World Forum will begin in Kazan. The event was first held in 2009 and aims to strengthen economic ties between Russia and Islamic countries. In the wake of a rupture between Russia and the West, these ties are now part of a shifting world order.

Ecuador’s president dissolves country’s national assembly. Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso, who is facing an impeachment vote, has triggered a constitutional clause to dissolve the government. This is a move that could spark protests within a country already tackling a fragile security situation.

Taiwan excluded from WHO annual assembly. Taiwan failed in its efforts to gain an invitation to the WHO's annual assembly despite the island's claims that support was growing for its participation. China and Pakistan urged members to reject Taiwan's inclusion while Eswatini and the Marshall Islands spoke in favour.

CONFLICT

Tens of thousands protest against planned Israeli judicial overhaul. Tens of thousands of Israelis joined protests across the country, now entering their fifth month, protesting against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plans to tighten controls on the Supreme Court.

Sudan's army and paramilitary RSF sign seven-day ceasefire. Sudan's warring factions signed an agreement for a seven-day ceasefire as fighting that has plunged the country into chaos and displaced more than a million entered its sixth week.

Thousands gather for pro-EU rally in Moldovan capital. A huge pro-EU rally has taken place in Moldova's capital Chisinau, organised by the country's President Maia Sandu. Her pro-Western government has accused Russia of stoking tensions by supporting Moldova's pro-Russian opposition Sor party.

Global executions reached highest rate in five years. The number of executions recorded globally in 2022 was the highest in five years, as several Middle Eastern states ramped up their use of the death penalty, Amnesty International says. The figures exclude China, which is thought to execute thousands each year.

Myanmar military has imported weaponry worth $1bn since coup. Myanmar’s military has imported arms worth at least $1bn since seizing power in February 2021. Most of the weapons came from Russia, China and Singapore.

ECONOMICS

China holds lending rates steady. China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the ninth month, matching market expectations, as a weakening yuan and widening yield differentials with the US limited the scope for any substantial monetary easing.

Russia and Iran sign rail deal for corridor intended to rival Suez Canal. Putin and his Iranian counterpart oversaw the signing of a deal to finance an Iranian railway line as part of an international North–South Transport Corridor. The Rasht-Astara railway is intended to connect India, Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan and other countries via railways and sea.

G7 tightens Russia sanctions, lessens China trade reliance. Leaders of the world's richest democracies acted to increase sanctions against Russia, while a draft statement in Hiroshima stressed the need to reduce reliance on trade with China.

China's Xi Jinping reveals grand development plan for Central Asia. Xi Jinping has addressed the China-Central Asia Summit which was attended by leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. He pledged infrastructure and trade deals, and to avoid outside interference.

Kenyans brace for higher taxes. Despite pledging to improve the lot of impoverished Kenyans during last year's election campaign, President Ruto is now taking the politically unpopular step of raising taxes due to the spiralling debt that the country is facing.

DEVELOPMENT

James Webb Telescope finds water in asteroid belt, hinting at origin of Earth's oceans. Water has been found in the Solar System's main asteroid belt for the first time, giving scientists an insight into where Earth's oceans may have come from.

EU lawmakers back human rights, environmental checks for large companies. EU lawmakers backed rules requiring thousands of large companies to identify and mitigate human rights abuses like child labour or slavery, and environmental damage by suppliers.

Zimbabwe pardons over 4,000 prisoners to decongest jails. Zimbabwe has released about a fifth of all prisoners under a presidential amnesty order meant to decongest the country’s overcrowded jails. Violent criminals as well as those convicted of robbery, treason and public order offences were excluded.

US begins trial for dirty-bomb antidote. The first human trial of a new type of dirty-bomb-antidote pill, designed to remove harmful radioactive contamination from the body, has started in the US. The drug, HOPO 14-1, is thought to counteract several materials that might be used in weapons, including uranium.

Turkish banks restrict credit access amid pre-runoff uncertainty. Turkish banks have restricted access to some individual loans and has postponed decisions on extending corporate loans following new regulations introduced since the inconclusive presidential vote, and ahead of a May 28 runoff.

Chinese authorities slap comedy firm with $2 million fine after military joke. China has fined one of the country's best-known comedy companies, accusing it of "harming society" after a military joke made by one of its comedians drew strong public criticism, raising concerns about the future of comedy in China.

SOCIAL

Ireland set to become first country with mandatory health warnings on alcohol. Providers of alcoholic drinks will be obliged to display warnings on product packaging telling consumers about both the risk of drinking when pregnant and the risk of liver disease and fatal cancers from alcohol consumption.

US banks rethink social media as a threat, not a marketing tool. Bankers are increasing risk management, monitoring and emergency procedures around the use of social media after an internet-fuelled run toppled Silicon Valley Bank two months ago, sparking turmoil in the industry.

Researchers uncover extraordinary navigation skills of Bogong moths. They migrate 1,000 kilometres using the earth's magnetic field, the stars, and even their sense of smell to locate the caves, which are at altitudes of up to 2,150 kilometres. Yet their brains are only one tenth the size of a grain of rice.

8 out of 10 South African children struggle to read by the age of 10. South Africa ranked last out of 57 countries assessed in the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study. Illiteracy among South African children rose from 78% in 2016, to 81%.

'ESG' in US finance job titles comes with 20% pay premium. U.S.-based bankers and money managers whose job titles include "ESG" or "sustainability" earn on average around 20% higher base salaries than colleagues of the same seniority without those labels.