Intelligence Fusion Weekly Updates 2/25/2023

 

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Intelligence Fusion Weekly Newsletter Email Banner 2023

Friday 24th February 2023

Hi there,

 

Here's your weekly rundown of the global security landscape, highlighting key incidents that have taken place in each region in the last seven days;

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EUROPE

London, UK

A series of stabbings were reported in Northeast London over the course of two days (22nd-23rd February). The stabbings were recorded in Walthamstow, Ilford and Clapton but police have not commented as to whether the incidents are linked. Violent crime in London is a common occurrence, and knife crime in particular has been a prevalent theme in London crime trends.

 

Whilst the stabbings outlined have not been confirmed as linked, spikes in stabbings such as that seen on the 22nd-23rd are often linked to ongoing disputes between gangs. Gun crime is far less common than knife crime across the UK, but occur in London at higher rates then in other areas of the UK.  

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NORTH AMERICA

Mexico 

Mexico's ex-security minister Genaro García Luna has been found guilty by a New York jury of drug trafficking. He will serve a minimum of 20 years.

 

García Luna served as security minister under Mexican President Felipe Calderón, who oversaw a crackdown on drug cartels starting in 2006 and Garcia Luna was viewed as a chief architect of his policy against the cartels.

 

However, during the trial a raft of imprisoned cartel members testified that Garcia Luna was actively working with the Sinaloa Cartel in particular but would cooperate with a number of criminal groups. A former federal police officer, and leader of the Beltrán Leyva Cartel, testified that a 23 ton seizure of cocaine in the port of Manzanillo, State of Colima was swapped by Garcia Luna. The seizure was the largest in Mexican history but Garcia Luna collaborated with the cartel to give the drugs back to them in exchange for packages filled with a flour and sugar mixture that were destroyed instead.

 

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has greeted the news positively and described it as evidence of the narco state that was allowed to develop under previous administrations. In the trial, Obrador’s name was also brought up briefly, and he threatened to sue over it. Former President Calderón has said the verdict is being used to politically attack him although it appears prosecutors attempted to steer clear of accusations against him.

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MIDDLE EAST & ASIA

North Korea

At 17:22 on 18th February North Korea launched a ballistic missile from the Sunan launch site near Pyongyang airport towards the Sea of Japan. The missile flew for just over an hour on a lofted trajectory for a distance of 989 km to land outside Japan’s EEZ. Despite speculation that the launch may have been the first test of a solid-fuelled ICBM, a DPRK statement claimed that the missile was in fact a Hwasong-15, which was first tested in 2017.

 

The launch was in response to US-ROK exercises, and was followed by SRBM and cruise missile launches on 20th and 23rd February. The launches are further confirmation of the DPRK’s missile capabilities, and more launches should be expected in response to US-ROK-Japan exercises and as their technology progresses. Whether the DPRK is close to a solid-fuelled ICBM is contested, but such a test in the coming months remains plausible.

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AFRICA

Kenya

Opposition leader Raila Odinga has threatened nationwide protests against President Ruto’s government over the high cost of living. Leader of the Azimio la Umoja coalition, Odinga has given the government 14 days to lower taxes and the cost of living of face nationwide protests. Odinga made the announcement on 22nd January at a rally in Nairobi which was attended by hundreds of supporters. The inflation rate in Kenya stood at 8.9 percent in January. The cost of essential commodities including cooking flour, electricity, fuel, sugar and milk have increased in recent months. Soon after coming into office, President Ruto removed the subsidy on petrol which policymakers had warned was unsustainable.

 

Tensions between Odinga and President Ruto have remained high with the former rejecting the latter’s legitimacy. Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) remains an influential party but in recent weeks President Ruto has persuaded some leaders to support him.

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SOUTH AMERICA

Brazil

At least 40 people are reported to have died in flooding and landslides in Brazil's São Paulo state after extreme rainfall. 60 cm of rainfall is recorded to have fallen within the region in one day.

 

São Paulo has declared a 180-day state of calamity for six cities with the majority of deaths occurring in São Sebastião where 50 houses have collapsed. Over 500 rescue workers are attempting to clear roads and rescue victims but are hampered by continued heavy rain. Dozens are reported missing with the death toll expected to increase with hundreds displaced. Added to the strain are the number of undetermined tourists who had travelled to the area for carnival which is popular with wealthier visitors.

 

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited the state and met the governor who requested army assistance who are already involved in some rescue operations and providing planes. Da Silva pledged to support reconstruction efforts and drew attention to the need to build homes away from environmentally at risk areas. Operations at the port of Santos, which is the largest container port in Latin America, were interrupted by winds of 55km/h and waves over 1 metre high. 



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