Intelligence Fusion Weekly Update 12/9/2022

 

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Friday 9th December 2022


Here's your weekly rundown of the global security landscape, highlighting key incidents that have taken place in each region in the last seven days;

Intelligence Insight Weekly - What's Happening in Asia?

MIDDLE EAST & ASIA

Indonesia

At 08:20 hrs on 7th December a male suicide bomber detonated a device at the Astana Anyar police station in Bandung, West Java, killing one police officer and injuring nine others and a civilian. A second device, fitting the description of a pressure cooker bomb, failed to detonate and was made safe by bomb disposal at the scene. The perpetrator, Agus Sujatno, had been released from prison in late 2021 after serving several years for a 2017 bombing in Bandung linked to the Islamic extremist group Jemaah Anshsrut Daulah (JAD).

 

Also found at the scene were flyers critical of the recent revision of Indonesia’s criminal code, which were ratified on Tuesday. Although the controversial code contains several clauses that would be welcomed by Islamists such as tightened blasphemy laws and a ban on extra-marital sex, it also bans the espousing of views that run contrary to the secular state ideology of pancasila - which given the bomber’s background seems a reasonable early explanation for the attack. Despite the bomber’s known affiliation with JAD, the level of involvement of other members of the group is not known. The bombing came on the same day that Hisyam bin Alizein aka Umar Patek, was released from prison. Alizein was sentenced to 20 years in 2012 for his role in the 2002 Jemaah Islamiyah bombing in Kuta, Bali, which killed 202 people.

Intelligence Insight Weekly - What's Happening in Africa?

AFRICA

South Sudan

Continued violence in South Sudan’s Upper Nile State has forced thousands to flee into Sudan or hide in swamps. Over 9,000 have been displaced. Fighting is taking place between Shilluk armed youth and Nuer elements in Fashoda County. There have been sporadic clashes in the state between different groups since August 2022. IDPs (internally displaced people) have also been attacked in Kudok Payam and Dethouk Payam. In Kodok town, there was tension after Shilluk militias reportedly ordered government forces to leave the town immediately for declining to protect civilians against Nuer White Army attackers.

 

Government forces then reportedly took up defensive positions. Some armed groups are allegedly from Jonglei State while others are forces within the SPLA-IO Kitgwang faction. Commissioner Aban of Fashoda County claims that there is an alliance between the armed groups from Jonglei and Kitgwang to launch an attack on the county's villages.

Insight Weekly - Europe Image

EUROPE

Russia

From 5th-6th December 2022, explosions were reported at three air bases in Russia; Kursk, Engels Air Base in Saratov Oblast and Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast. The second and third bases mentioned house numerous Tu-22, Tu-95 and Tu-160 Strategic Bomber aircraft which - alongside limited naval assets in the Black Sea - regularly fire Kh-101/X-101 cruise missiles into Ukraine from Russian airspace. According to available information from Russian and Ukrainian sources, these explosions were due to Ukraine launching Tu-141 Strizh UAVs at the bases. Available information on the Tu-141 indicates this UAV could reach these bases. With it being a rocket-propelled UAV, it could easily be used as an improvised missile.

 

So far, Russia's response appears to have been limited. However, attacks on these Strategic Bombers will further degrade Russia's advantage with cruise missiles and dominance of the air space. If these UAV attacks continue and are successful in targeting Tupolev Bombers, the pressure may begin to influence Russia to resort to more severe reprisals in order to discourage further attacks.

Insight Weekly - North America Image

NORTH AMERICA

North Carolina, USA

As of 7th December most power outages have been restored for 45,000 homes and businesses in Moore County, North Carolina following attacks in electric substations, the result of vandalism.

 

The power outage has left thousands in the dark since 3rd December. A state of emergency was declared, schools were shut and a curfew was implemented. Since the FBI launched an investigation, investigators have found two dozen shell casings from a high-powered rifle like the attacks previously recorded against power grids by white supremacists.

 

The culprits have not been arrested yet but federal authorities have highlighted a possible connection to online extremists. Over the course of the last two years anti-government groups began using online forums to encourage the attack of critical infrastructure, including the power grid. Officials have announced a monetary reward of $75,000 for information that can lead to the arrest and conviction of the person or people responsible for the attack. A second possible connection discusses the disruptions of LGBTQ+ events by domestic extremists. The timing of the attack coincided with a LBGTQ+ drag performance but authorities have not found proof to link both attacks.

Insight Weekly - South America Image

SOUTH AMERICA

Peru

On Wednesday 7th December, President Castillo dissolved Congress and announced the installation of an emergency government, calling for elections and implementing a curfew in an attempt to prevent a vote on his impeachment and hold onto power. Since the announcement there has been mass resignations from the cabinet, including the foreign minister and the economy minister, as well as seven others. The commander of the army resigned moments before his national address.

 

The dissolvement of congress was quickly condemned as a coup attempt and an unconstitutional action; Peruvian authorities have proceeded to arrest him.

 

Throughout his 17 months in power there have already been six criminal investigations, five cabinets and two attempts to impeach him. The president is currently being investigated for corruption, rebellion and conspiracy charges.

 

Supporters of Pedro Castillo clashed with police officers in the hours following his arrest, with police firing tear gas in an attempt to disperse the rioters. A state of emergency has been declared.

 
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25 arrested on suspicion of planning armed coup in Germany

 

Members and supporters of the Reichsburger (Reich Citizens Movement), a far-right conspiracy group, have been arrested in a sweeping security operation carried out across Germany. 

 

Members of the group reject Germany's postwar constitution and plotted to overthrow the republic and replace it with a new state modelled on the Second Reich of 1871 Germany. The group's members reportedly included former members of the Bundestag, the military, and the judiciary.

 

The arrests took place in Berlin, Baden-Wรผrttemberg, Bavaria, Hesse, Lower Saxony, Thuringia and Saxony, as well as in Austria (Kitzbรผhel) and in Italy (Perugia). Search measures, involving an estimated 3000 officers, have been issued in over 130 properties in Brandenburg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland and North Rhine-Westphalia.

 

Thanks to server member 'M.' for sharing news of the arrests with our members in the #europe channel of our OSINT community. 

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How successful is Iran's foreign policy?

 

From Iran's alliance with Russia leading it to becoming involved in the war in Ukraine, to projecting power closer to home, we take a look at understanding Iranian foreign policy, what it hopes to achieve, and whether it has been a success for Iran's regime. Join our analysts for a Roundtable discussion on the different aspects of Iran's foreign policy, as well as how this all relates to the ongoing protests in the country.

 

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