Institute for Economics and Peace: Future Trends Newsletter 11/15/2022

November 15, 2022

Institute for Economics and Peace: Future Trends Newsletter 11/15/2022

Mexicans protest president's electoral reform plan.

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November 15, 2022

◯ Conflict ◯ Development ◯ Social ◯ Economics ◯ Politics

IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION

Here's what you need to know: Ukraine wants child deportations by Russia addressed at G20 summit, Mexicans protest president's electoral reform plan, ASEAN talks lay bare deep divisions on South China Sea, Ethiopia combatants sign deal to start implementing truce, US blocks more than 1,000 solar shipments from China over slave labour, coal will play an important role in India until at least 2040, black holes may have large-scale quantum properties.

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SPECIAL EDITION: UKRAINE

Ukraine wants child deportations by Russia addressed at G20 summit. The US envoy to the UN said that more than 1,800 children were transferred from Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine to Russia, in July alone.

Wall built by Ukraine on border with Belarus. Ukraine said it was building a reinforced concrete wall and other fortifications on its border with Belarus, a close Kremlin ally that Moscow used as a staging ground for its 24 February invasion.

Ukraine will make decision on any negotiations with Russia – Blinken. Ukraine would decide on the timing and contents of any negotiation framework with Russia, according to a readout of the US Secretary of State's recent meeting with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister.

SPECIAL EDITION: GLOBAL UNREST

Violent demonstrations have risen almost every year for the last decade, and this indicator has seen the largest fall in the Global Peace Index. Recently there has been a substantial increase in demonstrations, and the anticipated decline in global economic conditions is likely to accentuate this trend. Here are just some of the past week’s demonstrations.

Mexicans protest president's electoral reform plan. Thousands took to the streets in Mexico to protest President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's plan to overhaul the country's electoral commission, in what they fear would concentrate power in the hands of the government.

Climate protesters in Portugal storm building. Hundreds of protesters angry about the climate crisis took to the streets of Lisbon; with dozens storming a building where Portugal's Economy Minister was speaking, demanding that the former oil executive resign.

Anti-government protesters scuffle with police in Albania. Opposition protesters scuffled with police in front of the office of Prime Minister Edi Rama, where tens of thousands had gathered to protest against corruption, rising poverty and growing numbers leaving the country.

Far-right Independence Day march draws thousands in Poland.
Thousands of people gathered in Warsaw for an annual march organised by Poland's far-right to mark Independence Day, with a handful carrying white supremacist or anti-gay banners and firing off red flares.

POLITICS

ASEAN talks lay bare deep divisions on South China Sea, Ukraine. Highlighting the difficulties, the group was unable to agree on a joint statement at the conclusion of the conference. Disputes over freedom of navigation, building of islands and application of international law were raised.

Trade and security on agenda for Xi visit to Saudi Arabia.
Strengthening trade ties and regional security will be priorities for an upcoming visit by Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia, the Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs said.

Biden has no plans to meet with Saudi crown prince at G20.
President Biden does not plan to have a sit-down meeting with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman when the Group of 20 industrialised nations meet this week.

France halts military interventions in Africa. President Macron announced he would be pulling out French troops from Africa. A new strategy will be put in place for France's engagement with African partners.

CONFLICT

Ethiopia combatants sign deal to start implementing truce. The Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces signed an agreement laying out the roadmap for implementation of a peace deal that both sides reached in South Africa this month.

First batch of Kenyan troops land in DRC's war-torn east. Just over 900 troops have been deployed to fight the M23 rebel group in the DRC. The deployment was approved by the Kenyan parliament and has been described as a “purely offensive mission”.

621 arrests made following 20 October protests in Chad. 621 people, including 83 minors, have been arrested in Chad since the violently repressed opposition protests that left at least 50 people dead.

New fighting between the Philippine military and Muslim rebels. A renewed outbreak of fighting threatens to reignite a decades-long conflict. A peace pact was signed between the parties in 2014. The Philippine military explained this incident as the result of miscommunication with MILF rebels.

ECONOMICS

US blocks more than 1,000 solar shipments from China over slave labour. The solar energy components worth hundreds of millions of dollars have piled up at US ports, under a new law banning imports from China's Xinjiang region due to concerns about slave labour.

India can buy as much Russian oil as it wants, outside price cap. The US is happy for India to buy as much Russian oil as it wants, including at prices above a G7-imposed price cap mechanism, if it avoids Western insurance, finance and maritime services bound by the embargo.

China’s trade growth suffers first drop in over two years. China’s exports declined by 0.3% in October, compared with a year earlier, down from 5.7% growth in September; amid dwindling external demand and fallout from their zero-Covid policy.

Half a million UK workers drop out of workforce, citing long-term illness. The increase in long-term sickness started in 2019, before the pandemic, then rose sharply by 363,000 between early 2020 and the end of August 2022 to reach 2.5 million.

DEVELOPMENT

Coal will play an important role in India until at least 2040. Coal is an affordable source of energy and accounts for 51% of India's primary energy requirement and around 73% of its power generation. Shifting away from it is not expected soon.

Nanotechnology platform enables immune conversion of cancer cells. Researchers have developed a nanotechnology platform that can change the way the immune system sees solid tumour cells, making them more receptive to immunotherapy.

NASA transports first Zimbabwean and Ugandan satellites into space. Zimbabwe and Uganda have launched their first home-grown satellites into space, aboard a NASA rocket. Zimbabwe’s satellite, named ZimSat-1, was designed and assembled by three of the country’s scientists.

Cambodia and Japan to help Ukraine with mine clearing. The training will be provided by the Cambodian Mine Action Centre and the Japan International Cooperation Agency, a government-backed aid agency.

Kenyans granted permission to enter South Africa visa-free. As of January 2023, Kenyans will be allowed to enter South Africa visa-free for 90 days. This ends a long-standing dispute.

SOCIAL

Black holes may have large-scale quantum properties. A new study reveals black holes have properties characteristic of quantum particles suggesting they can at the same time be both small and big, heavy and light, or dead and alive, just like the legendary Schrödinger's cat.

China’s billionaire list loses nearly 300 members. The number of billionaires on the annual Hurun China Rich List fell to 1,305. Their overall wealth declined by 18% to $3.5 trillion, due to the economic downturn.

Jordan is running out of water, a grim glimpse of the future. The small Middle Eastern nation is already one of the driest countries in the world; and rising heat, coupled with a growing population, is making things much worse.

How a sand battery could transform clean energy. The sand becomes a battery after it is heated up to 600 degrees Celsius using electricity generated by wind turbines and solar panels, storing 8 megawatt hours of thermal energy when full. Sand is very effective for retaining heat for long periods, storing power for months.