IEP Future Trends Newsletter 11/8/2022

 

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November 8, 2022 ◯ Conflict ◯ Development ◯ Social ◯ Economics ◯ Politics

IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION Here's what you need to know: Hungary threatens to block EU joint funds for Ukraine aid, Israel's Netanyahu back to power after elections, North Korea’s missile launches were simulated attacks on South Korean and US targets, COP27 discusses climate compensation for the first time, scientists cannot fully explain how AI works anymore, the world's most innovative companies ranking released.

SPECIAL EDITION: UKRAINE Hungary threatens to block EU joint funds for Ukraine aid. Hungary opposes any arrangement that would see funding jointly with other EU member states. Hungary has provided support for Kyiv on a bilateral basis and will continue to do so. Ukraine seizes control of five strategic companies from oligarchs. Ukraine’s president said Kyiv has transferred five strategic enterprises to state control from previous oligarch ownership, as part of the country’s wartime effort. Companies include top national oil producers Ukrnafta and Ukrntatnafta. US urges Ukraine to be open to talks with Russia. The US is privately encouraging Ukraine to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia. It is claimed the request was not aimed at pushing Ukraine to negotiate, but an attempt to ensure Ukraine maintains the support of other nations.

POLITICS Israel's Netanyahu back to power after elections. Israel's most right-wing government will return to power after the current Prime Minister conceded. Continuing polarisation and divisions are expected from the new government’s proposed agenda, which includes overhauling the country's legal system. Thousands march in Peru calling for president's resignation.  Thousands of demonstrators marched through the streets of Lima calling for the removal of President Pedro Castillo, who is the subject of six corruption investigations. South Korea quietly becomes one of the world’s biggest weapons suppliers. South Korea has become a favourite of arms buyers worldwide; the culmination of a decades-long effort to protect itself from North Korea by building an indigenous arms industry, with economies of scale gained from big export sales. Russian mercenary force Wagner opens first official headquarters. The previously secretive Wagner Group, a private mercenary force, has opened its first official headquarters in Russia. The EU has accused the Wagner Group of serious human rights abuses in Ukraine, Africa, Syria and Libya. Central Asia emerging as a potential partner for the EU. The European Council President met for the first time with the five Central Asian leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, traditional allies of Russia in Central Asian countries have tried hard to strike a geopolitical balance.

CONFLICT North Korea’s missile launches were simulated attacks on South Korean and US targets. The simulations were prompted by joint military drills conducted by South Korean and US forces in recent weeks, according to North Korea's official statement.  Haitian authorities regain control from gang over main gas terminal. After two weeks of negotiations with the leader of the gang G9, a vital energy terminal in Port-au-Prince is freed and under police control. Chronic gang violence, poverty, food insecurity, inflation and fuel shortages are paralysing the country, leading to anti-government protests.  Crisis in DRC tests first military deployment by East African Economic Bloc. An East African Community military force has deployed for the first time in a peacekeeping mission to the DRC. Tasked with preventing unrest in the country’s mineral-rich eastern region, this will be an initial trial of their ability to jointly resolve complex political and security challenges. Russia recruiting US-trained Afghan soldiers for war on Ukraine. The former elite Afghan commandos, who were trained by US-forces and fled to Iran after the chaotic withdrawal last year, form a foreign legion. They are promised a safe haven for themselves and relatives, including financial compensation.  Lebanon, Syria and Iraq face growing cholera outbreaks driven by conflict. The bacterial infection has swept across Lebanon, Syria and Iraq; worsened by climate change, conflict, and subsequent displacement and poverty. WHO has announced a suspension of two-dose vaccines, as production cannot meet demand.

ECONOMICS COP27 discusses climate compensation for first time. Delegates from nearly 200 countries kicked off the UN climate summit in Egypt, agreeing to discuss compensating poor nations for mounting damage linked to global warming for the first time. Germany to force plastic makers to help pay for clean-ups. The Cabinet agreed on a bill that makers of products containing single-use plastic will need to pay into a central, government-managed fund from 2025. The fund is estimated to collect about $446 million in the first year. US added 261,000 jobs in October, lowest since December 2020. The US labour market remains strong, but is showing signs of cooling following the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate increases aimed at combating high inflation. Tech industry laying off workers at a fast pace. The industry is bracing for a potential recession, triggered by high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates. Despite still-solid job growth and record-high wages in many industries, big tech is battening down the hatches. ​ EU policymakers take action on greenwashing. The proliferation of green finance instruments risks greenwashing by companies. To address this, the ICMA issued guidance and put together a registry of 300 KPIs for companies.

DEVELOPMENT Scientists cannot fully explain how AI works anymore. AI researchers are warning developers to look more closely into the reasons why a system produces certain results. As AI can reinforce or disrupt systems of oppression, developers must make sure they know exactly how certain biases are produced rather than just looking at results. European temperatures have risen more than twice global average. The European region has seen temperatures rise 0.5 degrees Celsius on average each decade since 1991, the UN's World Meteorological Organization and the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service found in a joint report. UN: Tree planting pledges for climate change are unrealistic. An area bigger than the US needs to be set aside for tree planting and other measures to meet climate pledges. Recent UN assessments conclude that current policies and plans are not nearly enough and may be unattainable. Seeing electron movement at the fastest speed ever could unlock next-level quantum computing. The key to maximizing traditional or quantum computing speeds lies in our ability to understand how electrons behave in solids. Researchers have now captured electron movement in attoseconds, the fastest speed yet. Africa’s population is growing at breakneck pace, shaping the future globally. By the end of the century, Africa will be home to 40% of the world’s population. How African nations handle the fastest urbanisation in human history will affect people’s movements and shape global economic prosperity.

SOCIAL The world's most innovative companies ranking released. Boston Consulting Group has released its latest ranking of the most innovative companies in the world. Medieval plague may have negatively moulded our immunity. Some of the same genetic variants identified as protective against the plague are associated with certain autoimmune disorders such as Crohn’s disease, rheumatoid arthritis and lupus. The hunt for deep-sea minerals is on the rise. The high demand for metals from copper to cobalt is leading the mining industry to explore oceans for deep-sea mining. Scientists are worried as potential impacts are under-researched and could cause irreparable damage. Humanoid robots could generate $154 billion in revenue over next 15 years. A new report is revealing that humanoid robots could be a $154 billion-a-year business within the next 15 years. This is the equivalent of the current EV market.  Scientists develop more efficient transparent solar panels. Swiss scientists have developed transparent solar panels that have set a new record in energy efficiency. This accomplishment marks a key step in the development of windows that can also serve as viable sources of solar energy.

In last week's Future Trends, the EU approved a ban on sales of new fossil fuel cars effective from? 2025 2028 2032 2035

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