IEP: Future Trends 9/6/2022

September 06, 2022

IEP: Future Trends 9/6/2022

September 6, 2022

◯ Conflict ◯ Development ◯ Social ◯ Economics ◯ Politics

IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION

Here's what you need to know: Russia's Gazprom announces indefinite shutdown of Nord Stream 1 pipeline, tens of thousands protest in Prague against Czech government, military clashes rock outskirts of Libyan capital, Indonesia officially joins the China-backed trade bloc, former Malaysian first lady ordered to serve 10 years for graft, France bans ads for fossil fuels.

SPECIAL EDITION: UKRAINE

Russia's Gazprom announces indefinite shutdown of Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Russian energy giant Gazprom said gas supplies to Western Europe, via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, have completely stopped due to equipment issues. It gave no timeframe for restarting the pipeline.

Top Russian oil official critical of Ukrainian war falls to death from hospital window. Ravil Maganov, the chairman of Lukoil, died after falling from a hospital window in Moscow becoming the latest in a series of businessmen to meet with sudden unexplained deaths.

Ukraine war – three scenarios for the next six months. A steady state outcome would probably be an advantage for Russia, due to its larger resources, but a Ukrainian advance would give faith for further support from western nations. A black swan event is the hardest to predict.

POLITICS

Tens of thousands protest in Prague against Czech government, EU and NATO. An estimated 70,000 people protested against the Czech government, calling on the ruling coalition to do more to control soaring energy prices and voicing opposition to the EU and NATO.

Angola's opposition party files legal challenge to election results.
Angola's leading opposition party has filed a legal complaint challenging last week's election results, which saw the long-ruling MPLA win by a significantly reduced majority.

Chileans reject new constitution in referendum. Chileans rejected a proposal for a new constitution to replace the one adopted during Pinochet's dictatorship. With more than 99% of the votes counted, the reject camp led with over 62% compared to almost 38% who voted yes.

Mali releases three women from among 49 detained Ivorian soldiers. Three Ivorian soldiers have been released while 46 soldiers remain detained in Mali. It has been seven weeks since the arrest of the troops that sparked a diplomatic spat between the West African neighbours.

Argentina shaken by assassination attempt on vice president.
Hundreds of thousands of Argentines descended on the capital's main plaza in a show of solidarity against an assassination attempt on the vice president, which triggered an outpouring of support in a country gripped by deep political polarisation and economic crisis.

CONFLICT

Military clashes rock outskirts of Libyan capital. Libyan armed factions fought in the western outskirts of Tripoli as forces aligned with Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah's government further consolidated their control over the capital.

UN report says China is responsible for serious human rights violations against Uyghurs. The report calls for investigations and the release of prisoners. China has denied the allegations, citing counter-terrorism measures.

Yemen civil war threatens water shortage in the country. The war has caused extensive environmental degradation, making the country more vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

92-year-old cleric silently halted Iraq's slide back into war. Political violence killed over 30 people in Iraq, after an Iranian cleric denounced Iraq’s most popular politician. Only Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s intervention stopped civil war.

Disagreement between Serbia and Kosovo over licence plates could start another European conflict. Serbia has refused to recognise Kosovo. Ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo register their cars in Serbia, however the Kosovo government is now requiring they register their cars in Kosovo. The Serbians are threatening to revolt.

ECONOMICS

Indonesia officially joins the China-backed trade bloc. Indonesia is the latest Southeast Asian nation to become a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, seeking an economic boost.

Eurozone inflation hits record high of 9.1%. Inflation in the Eurozone hit its highest ever level this month, pushed by soaring energy costs. It is the ninth consecutive month to set a record rate for inflation in Europe, with consumer prices rising steadily since November 2021.

Ghana’s currency reaches record lows. The cedi has dropped more than 38% this year making it the worst performing currency after Sri Lanka’s rupee among the 150 economies tracked.

World Food prices drop for fifth consecutive month: FAO report.
According to the Food Index Report, commodity food prices are lower than they were in July. This is the fifth month in a row that food prices have reduced. However, they are still 8% higher than a year ago.

Indonesia hikes fuel prices by 30% to rein in ballooning subsidies.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy has increased its 2022 energy subsidies to $34 billion, tripling the original budget. The subsidies have blown out because of rising global prices of oil and a depreciating rupiah currency.

DEVELOPMENT

Ex-Malaysian first lady ordered to serve 10 years for graft. Former Malaysian first lady Rosmah Mansor was ordered to serve 10 years in prison after being found guilty of soliciting and receiving bribes during her husband’s administration. He was imprisoned over fraud connected to the 1MDB state fund.

Zimbabwe faces major measles outbreak. The country is currently in the midst of a deadly measles outbreak that has so far claimed 685 lives, mainly affecting children between the ages of six months and 15 years.

Germany will get through winter, even without Russian gas. Germany will likely get through the winter without a crisis even if Russian gas supplies stop, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said. Adding the country could draw on its gas stores and get more deliveries from Norway or the Netherlands.

Mars Rover mission successfully creating oxygen. It has been successfully making oxygen from Mars' carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere in a series of tests. This is part of NASA's Perseverance rover mission, which landed on Mars in February 2021.

Synthetic milk made without cows may be coming to supermarket shelves. Synthetic milk has the same biochemical make up as animal milk, but is grown using a technique known as precision fermentation, which produces biomass cultured from cells.

SOCIAL

France bans ads for fossil fuels. The legislation prohibits advertising for all energy products related to fossil fuels such as petrol products, energy from the combustion of coal mining and hydrogen-containing carbons.

China introduces fresh lockdowns in major cities. Further escalations or prolonged lockdowns in big cities, such as Chengdu and Shenzhen, risk hurting tepid economic growth.

US life expectancy drops – down by two years and nine months from its peak. US life expectancy rose for decades, but progress stalled before the pandemic. It was 78 years, 10 months in 2019. In 2020, it dropped to 77 years. Last year, it fell to 76 years, one month. The last time it was this low was 1996.

Australia’s epic wildfires expanded ozone hole, increased global heat. Temperatures in the lower stratosphere rose by 0.7 °C, the biggest increase since the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991. The temperature boost from the fires lasted for around four months.

Scientists find IVF babies born from frozen embryos are at a greater risk of cancer. The research found that children born from frozen embryo transfers had roughly 1.6 to 1.7 times higher risk of cancer than children born from fresh embryo transfers, or those born without the help of fertility treatments.