ACLED Report: Civilian Targeting Trends in CAR and Mali

Foreign Mercenary Group Operations in Africa

Civilian Targeting Trends in the Central African Republic and Mali

Introduction

On 30 March 2022, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the UK Parliament launched an inquiry into states’ use of private military contractors (PMC), drawing particular attention to the prominent Russian PMC known as the Wagner Group (UK Parliament, 30 March 2022). The decision to launch the inquiry came as Wagner Group forces deployed to Ukraine, and a series of reports emerged implicating Wagner mercenaries in human rights violations in Mali.
This was only one of the latest efforts to investigate the Wagner Group’s activities. Past initiatives came amid heightened international concern over Wagner Group operations in the Central African Republic (CAR). Multiple UN bodies have previously tabled concerns or opened investigations into alleged abuses perpetrated by Wagner mercenaries (UN Security Council, 25 June 2021; UN Info, 31 March 2021). In June 2021, the UN Panel of Experts on CAR tabled reports of “indiscriminate killings” and violence against civilians at the hands of “Russian instructors” to the UN Security Council (UN Security Council, 25 June 2021). The UN peacekeeping mission in CAR (MINUSCA) and Rwandan special forces have also expressed concerns about joint operations with Wagner over alleged human rights violations (UN Info, 31 March 2021; Corbeau News, 13 June 2021). Moreover, the European Union (EU) imposed sanctions on the Wagner Group and Wagner-linked individuals in December 2021 (European Council, 13 December 2021).

In light of growing concerns about Wagner’s activities in Mali and their deployment in Ukraine, this report analyzes ACLED data on the group’s engagement in political violence in recent years. It focuses on civilian targeting by the Wagner Group in CAR and Mali, where they have operated alongside state forces since 2018 and 2021, respectively. Analysis of the data reveals several clear trends:

Key Trends

• The Wagner Group engages in high levels of civilian targeting in both CAR and Mali. Civilian targeting accounts for 52% and 71% of Wagner involvement in political violence in CAR and Mali, respectively. In both cases, this exceeds the rate of civilian targeting perpetrated by allied state forces, as well as the major insurgent groups operating in each context.

• In CAR, the Wagner Group has increasingly operated independently of the Central African Armed Forces (FACA) from mid-2021 after initial operations to regain territory from rebel groups. While Wagner Group mercenaries continue to play an important role in training FACA and coordinating FACA activities, they have operated independently of state forces in at least 50% of political violence events each month since May 2021, except October 2021 and April and June 2022.

• When operating independently in CAR, Wagner mercenaries have engaged in a disproportionately higher level of violence targeting civilians than when they have operated alongside state forces. Since December 2020, 70% of Wagner events without the presence of state forces have been acts of civilian targeting, compared to 27% when Wagner mercenaries have operated alongside state forces.
• In Mali, by contrast, the Wagner Group has mostly operated alongside state forces — driving an increase in civilian targeting involving state forces. ACLED records approximately 500 civilian fatalities resulting from joint operations involving Wagner and Malian state forces.

These trends not only point to the heightened risk that Wagner Group forces pose to civilians through both targeted killings and opportunistic attacks. They also highlight the manner in which states accept and exploit these activities as part of wider counter-insurgency operations in already complex conflict environments.

Read more on ACLED's website | Full report here