IEP Future Trends Newsletter 8/30/2022

August 30, 2022

IEP Future Trends Newsletter 8/30/2022

August 30, 2022

◯ Conflict ◯ Development ◯ Social ◯ Economics ◯ Politics

IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION

Here's what you need to know: Russia is applying new laws to stifle dissent on Ukraine, Argentine prosecutors’ request 12-year sentence for VP, Libya tense after worst fighting in years, global food prices are back to pre-war levels, giant space umbrella will estimate the world’s biomass, Horn of Africa on track for fifth failed rainy season.

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SPECIAL EDITION: UKRAINE

Russia is applying new laws to stifle dissent on Ukraine. A growing number of Russians have been prosecuted under laws aimed at stamping out criticism of Moscow's military actions in Ukraine. They can face prison terms of up to five years for criticising the military.

US announces nearly $3 billion in new military aid for Ukraine. US security assistance is shifting to a longer-term strategy that will likely keep more American troops in Europe. The aid would allow Ukraine to acquire air defence systems, artillery systems and munitions, drones and other equipment.

Russia can't stop war, even if Ukraine drops NATO hopes. A top ally of President Putin said that Moscow would not stop its military campaign in Ukraine, even if Kyiv formally renounced its aspirations to join NATO.

POLITICS

Argentine prosecutors’ request 12-year sentence for VP. Prosecutors have asked a judge to sentence Argentine Vice President Cristina Fernández to 12 years in prison, and bar her from holding public office for life, for irregularly awarding public works contracts to a friend and ally.

US Coast Guard vessel unable to enter Solomon Islands port to refuel. The vessel was patrolling for illegal fishing activity in the Pacific when the request for entry to Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, was not approved.

Angola's ruling party claims victory, opposition leader rejects results. The party that has ruled Angola continuously for nearly 50 years claimed victory in last week's election, after the electoral commission put its share of the vote at 51%. The main opposition coalition rejected the results.

France and Algeria restore relations. The French president’s visit to Algeria led to the two countries agreeing on a renewed partnership aimed at easing tensions. The partnership will explore the supply of Algerian oil and gas to France.

Nicaraguan government takes over opposition newspaper’s facilities.
The newspaper, La Prensa, was one of the oldest in the western hemisphere. The actions follow the prosecution of the management for money laundering. The facilities will be turned into a cultural centre.

CONFLICT

Libya tense after worst fighting in years. Charred cars and buildings pockmarked by bullets scarred Libya's capital, the day after intense fighting killed 32 people. The fighting appears to have left the Tripoli government more firmly entrenched.

Months long ceasefire ends in Tigray. Fighting between forces from Ethiopia's northern region of Tigray and central government forces has erupted around the town of Kobo, ending a months-long ceasefire.

Belarus leader says his warplanes have been modified to carry nuclear weapons. President Lukashenko said that the military’s SU-24 warplanes have been modified to carry nuclear weapons, and that Minsk would react immediately if the West caused it any problems.

President Putin signs decree to increase size of armed forces to 2.04 million. The increase to Russia's forces includes a 137,000 boost in the number of combat personnel to 1.15 million. It is unclear how many troops have died in the seven months of the war on Ukraine.

Taiwan plans $19 billion in defence spending for next year. Stimulated by China and its large-scale military exercises, Taiwan is raising spending by 14%for new fighter jets and other equipment.

ECONOMICS

Global food prices are back to pre-war levels. In the midst of global economic repression, the food market appears to have stabilised. This is partly due to UN efforts to restart Ukrainian exports and increased Russian production.

Former Nigerian militants get contracts to combat oil theft. Nigeria's state oil company has hired a firm owned by former-militant Tompolo, whose attacks on facilities in the early 2000s crippled oil production. His firm has been hired to protect installations and tackle rampant theft.

China adds $146 billion more of stimulus to rescue growth. China stepped up its economic stimulus with a further $146 billion (1 trillion yuan) of funding largely focused on infrastructure spending. The support is unlikely to counter the damage from repeated Covid lockdowns and a property market slump.

Crypto’s massive marketing efforts have not drawn new investors. In the 12 months to the end of September the number of Americans investing in cryptocurrencies remained flat at 16%, signalling that new investors are not entering the market. This is despite large efforts to attract new customers.

Beijing to forgive 23 interest-free loans to 17 African nations. China, the largest government creditor to emerging economies, said it will forgive 23 interest-free loans to 17 African countries and redirect $10 billion of its International Monetary Fund reserves to nations on the continent.

DEVELOPMENT

Giant space umbrella will estimate the world’s biomass. Built by the European Space Agency, the umbrella will take an approach similar to a CT scan. The 1.2 tonne satellite will analyse images of the earth to build up a picture of how much woody material is present.

Japan signals return to nuclear power to stabilise energy supply.
Japan will restart more offline nuclear plants and look at developing next-generation reactors, setting the stage for a major policy shift a decade after the Fukushima disaster.

Germany inaugurates world’s first hydrogen-powered train fleet. A fleet of 14 trains supplied by French industrial firm Alstom to the German state of Lower Saxony have replaced diesel locomotives on the 100km track.

James Webb telescope just found CO2 on an exoplanet outside Earth's solar system. WASP-39b is the first planet outside the Earth's solar system found to contain carbon dioxide. The breakthrough will make it easier to do spectroscopy to find other planets capable of supporting life.

SOCIAL

Horn of Africa on track for fifth failed rainy season. The worst drought in the Horn of Africa in more than 40 years looks almost certain to persist after the World Meteorological Organization said that forecasts for October to December show a high chance of drier-than-average conditions.

Chilean government sets new push on bill to reduce working hours. The bill, which aims to reduce the working week from 45 to 40 hours within five years, had stalled in Congress since 2017 but is now being pushed by the President.

People facing acute food insecurity reach 345 million worldwide. The number of people facing acute food insecurity worldwide has more than doubled to 345 million since 2019 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, conflict and climate change the World Food Programme said.

Pakistan floods have affected over 30 million people. Historic monsoon rains and flooding in Pakistan have affected more than 30 million people over the last few weeks. The country's climate change minister called the situation a "climate-induced humanitarian disaster of epic proportions."

WHO: Africa increases its healthy life expectancy. People on the African continent could expect to live an average of 56 years in good health, with a general life expectancy of just under 63 years. This is 10 years longer than in 2000.