Friday 3rd June 2022

Weekly rundown of the global security landscape, highlighting key incidents that have taken place in each region in the last seven days;

EUROPE

Russia

Following the announcement by the European Union to impose a partial embargo on Russian oil, there have been several indications of the Russian government retaliating via its largest oil and gas firm Gazprom. Since the announcement, Gazprom has cut natural gas supplies to Shell Energy Group Europe (targeting its supplies in Germany), Orsted in Denmark and Gas Terra in the Netherlands. The reason cited for these decisions is the failure of these companies to pay for Russian natural gas in Rubles.

These decisions are likely to be more than just a direct retaliation for the oil embargo. Europe has been heavily dependent on Russian natural gas for quite some time due to policies focussing on renewable energy; a current view of Statista data on natural gas reserves has Russia at the top but not one single European country having a significant supply of natural gas reserves.

These decisions by Gazprom are likely to reflect Russia's anger towards the EU's partial oil embargo along with its ongoing support for Ukraine; and more cuts are likely to be on the cards. It is likely that Russia has now decided to dramatically increase its pressure on Europe by cutting off supplies which European countries will need when winter approaches. Natural gas prices are not only likely to increase, but the reduction in supplies are likely to become easily noticed across Europe when autumn and winter approach in the next few months.

NORTH AMERICA

Chicago, Illinois

This Memorial Day weekend featured a spate of shootings across the United States continuing a recent upward trend highlighted by the attack on Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas on the 24th May. Since the Uvalde attack approximately 17 mass shootings (at least four victims) have been reported across the country.

The highest number of Memorial Day weekend shootings were reported across Chicago with approximately 51 people shot including nine fatalities. This represents the most violent weekend since 2017. This follows the cancelling of leave requests for police to ensure a higher number of officers on duty as well as recent efforts by the City Council and Mayor Lori Lightfoot including extended curfew hours and entry bans at Millennium Park targeting juveniles and minors.

Other major cities which suffered a spate of shootings this weekend include Philadelphia where over 40 people were shot including approximately 14 fatalities. In total, approximately 300 shootings were reported across the United States in a 72hr period with over 130 people killed. This widespread gun violence comes at a time of significant public outcry since the Uvalde shooting and fuels continued debate among the public and politicians over the Second Amendment and calls for stricter gun control measures.

Intelligence Insight Weekly - What's Happening in Asia?

MIDDLE EAST & ASIA

Syria

Turkey's President Erdogan announced that Turkey will launch an operation to clear areas around the northern Syrian towns of Tel Rifaat and Manbij, both of which continue to see daily exchanges of artillery fire between Turkish-backed forces and majority-Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF.) Erdogan also threatened to proceed 'step by step, into other regions.'

The operation aims to create a 30km deep 'safe zone' along the border with Turkey and Syria by pushing the SDF back from key towns close to the Turkish border. The majority of the fighting is expected to be carried out by fighters from the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) with support from Turkish air assets and artillery. Whilst the offensive is aimed at the US-backed SDF, Syrian Government forces work closely with Kurdish forces in northern Syria and will likely be involved in the fighting, potentially placing pressure on Russia to mediate an end to the offensive without undermining their Syrian Government allies. At the time of writing, heavy shelling is ongoing in the area and has intensified since Erdogan's announcement of the upcoming operation. Artillery fire has been concentrated around the key towns of Manbij, Ain Issa and Tel Rifaat.

AFRICA

Democratic Republic of Congo

Calm has been reported in Rutshuru territory after sporadic fighting between the Congolese armed forces and the M23 led to the displacement of some 75,000 people. The latest round of fighting took place in areas such as Kibumba, Kanombe and Rumangabo, all located along the Rutshuru-Goma road. Previous rounds of fighting were generally closer to the Rwandan border. FARDC claim to have regained control of the situation and some IDPs are returning to their homes around Rumangabo. There are reports that the M23 have withdrawn into the Virunga National Park. . Sporadic fighting has taken place between the M23 and FARDC in recent years.

Furthermore, there were warning signs of the group’s resurgence in Rutshuru and Nyiragongo territory on July 2020. Tensions have also risen between DR Congo and Rwanda with the former accusing the latter of supporting the M23 (a group primarily made up of ethnic Tutsis), while the latter accused the former of allying with the FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda), a Hutu group, to attack the Rwandan military. Both countries also accuse the other of firing shells into their territories. RwandAir flights were suspended by the Congolese government this week and there are fears that relations between the two countries will escalate into a proxy war.

SOUTH AMERICA

Summit of the Americas

Next week U.S. President Joe Biden will welcome leaders from across the region at the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles. On the agenda are topics such as migration, climate change and the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, in the run-up to the summit, most discussions have focused on the countries that have not been invited, namely, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, which have been excluded due to their authoritarian models. Several other countries have spoken out against this decision and now threaten to boycott the summit by not attending, including Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras and most importantly, Mexico. Additionally, Brazil, Chile and Argentina have also voiced their criticism.

Although some of these threats might be hollow and appearances at the summit are mostly symbolic, the threatened boycott does highlight a challenge facing the United States, which is struggling to assert its leadership in the region. The summit will take place 6th-10th June.

Explosions target buses in two different cities, Philippines

IED blasts were reported in the cities of Koronadal and Tacurong on 26th May, leaving at least two injured. The first blast occurred when an improvised bomb detonated on a passenger bus travelling on a busy highway in Koronadal, injuring two passengers; minutes later, a second device exploded near a bus station in Tacurong, with no injuries reported. At the time of writing, no group has claimed responsibility, but the bombings bear similarities to other attacks carried out by Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF). The attacks occurred hours after the Philippine military confirmed that BIFF leader, Abu Turaife, was injured in an operation on 23rd May, along with 16 of his followers.

Our reporting of this incident was greatly supported by community member 'SAINT Sentinel' who shared video footage of the Koronadal blast.

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