Friday 10th June 2022

Hi M Nuri,

Here's your weekly rundown of the global security landscape, highlighting key incidents that have taken place in each region in the last seven days;

EUROPE

Italy

On 8th June 2022, a "Penny Market" in Gassino, Turin was broken into by an unknown number of suspects during the night. At this time, no information has been found on the specific time, number of suspects involved or how much money was stolen from the premises. Reporting does state the suspects used a "combination of gas and acetylene." Given the report is translated from Italian, the explosion was likely caused by the use of oxy acetylene. This chemical, used for blowtorches, has been the standard entry tool for ATM robberies across Europe.

However, ATM robberies in recent months appear to have become less attractive to burglars due to many reports indicating that little or no cash has been stolen; suggesting that anti-theft measures (eg - dye packs) may have been adapted to make ATM robberies through the use of improvised explosives futile.

If true, this recent incident could possibly indicate that ATMs are becoming a less attractive target for burglars and supermarkets/other premises carrying large amounts of cash are becoming the target of choice. Rather than use oxy acetylene to access cash inside an ATM, burglars may now use oxy acetylene to force their way into a premises instead to obtain cash.

NORTH AMERICA

Los Angeles, California

A US-bound caravan has left Tapachula, southern Mexico behind to reach the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles. The summit is fraught with contention as several countries such as Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua have been excluded from it and leaders from Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala and Bolivia have refused to attend. US President Joe Biden wishes to ease the strict restrictions imposed by Trump by tracking the flow of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border.

The over 15,000 migrant caravan from Central America, Venezuela, Cuba and Haiti will attempt to witness the regional discussions and stage protests between 6th-10th June 2022. The refusal of Biden to accept certain countries over lack of human rights has spurred disenchantment as the majority of activists originate from the excluded nations.

Intelligence Insight Weekly - What's Happening in Asia?

MIDDLE EAST & ASIA

Iran

Protests have been recorded in cities across Iran this week over issues such as water shortages, power outages and pensions disputes. Pension-related protests in particular have featured heavily in Iranian reporting this week, as the government announced a increase of just 10% for pensions despite official inflation rates being approximately 40%. In other incidents, protesters have accused the government of mismanagement of vital resources such as water or over poor living conditions.

Whilst the catalyst for the protests appear to be mostly economic concerns, pre-existing resentment towards the government also provides incentive to protest for many. Anti-government chants and incidents of political posters being vandalised have been reported at several protests. The response from security forces has been similar to previous cases in Iran, in that security forces are reported to have violently suppressed protests, with reports of casualties seen. The Iranian government has in the past shown it can survive large scale protests, but additional concerns such as Iran's slow economic recovery following COVID-19 and increasing food insecurity raise the chances of major social unrest going forwards.

AFRICA

North and West Africa

With the gas crisis continuing to affect Europe, European countries’ search for non-Russian alternatives has increased the geo-strategic importance of countries in North Africa and West Africa. In the case of Egypt, for instance, the country’s gas export revenues were 768 percent higher in the first four months of 2022 than in all of 2020. The EU has publicly stated its intention to conclude a trilateral agreement with Egypt and Israel, who will utilise Egypt’s LNG (liquified natural gas) infrastructure. Gas exports from Africa to Europe also arrive via pipelines from Algeria into Spain and Libya into Italy.

However, geopolitical tensions and security threats from terrorist groups are a threat to the stability of supply. ISIS militants have targeted gas pipelines in the Sinai Peninsula, for example, and this strategy could be extended to the Sahel and West African region, where terrorist groups – a growing threat in the region – could attack pipelines. Nigeria recently approved a proposal for the construction of a gas pipeline to Morocco via 15 West African countries. Algeria, who also revived plans for a gas pipeline from Nigeria and supply gas to Spain, recently threatened to suspend gas supply amid tensions over Spain’s stance on the Western Sahara. Russia, who have been increasing their presence in Africa, could also use their presence in countries such as Libya and elsewhere in Africa to undermine the EU.

SOUTH AMERICA

Tulcan, Ecuador

On 8th June, an explosive was detonated in a store in the southern sector of Tulcan, in northern Ecuador on the border with Colombia. The explosion caused damage to the store, but no injuries were reported. The owner of the store has said that she had previously been threatened by criminals, likely connected to this incident. The use of explosives targeting businesses or homes of individuals as a method of extortion is common in the country, with places like Guayaquil seeing a number of such incidents. Tulcan has also seen such incidents, as a crossing point between Ecuador and Colombia, which leads to criminal activity such as smuggling and the movement of Colombian armed groups.

The incident also comes at a time when Ecuador has seen an increase in vehicle bombs during May. The latest such incident was on 29th May when a taxi exploded outside a police station in Guayaquil. No one was injured in that incident, but a police vehicle was damaged. Explosives had also been found and disposed of outside a business in Guayaquil the day before. Violence in Ecuador has been significant in the first five months of 2022, with local criminal groups fighting for the drug trade and drug routes in the country.

Learn more about the rising violence in Ecuador in our recent crime and security report for the country

Drone attack targets site used by US Consulate in Erbil, Iraq

At least 3 people were wounded and several vehicles damaged after a drone targeted a site used by the US Consulate on the road between Erbil and Pirman, 8th June. Reports suggest the site is also located close to the UAE Consulate, which lists its address in the Mass City area of Erbil. No group has claimed the attack as of yet.

Our reporting of this incident was greatly supported by community member 'M.' who shared breaking footage of the aftermath of the attack.

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