IEP: Future Trends June 21, 2022

 

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June 21, 2022 ◯ Conflict ◯ Development ◯ Social ◯ Economics ◯ Politics

IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION Here's what you need to know: UN: Ukraine war pushes global displaced to record high, Ecuador declares force majeure for oil amid state of exception over protests, Africa could feed itself, India's Russian coal purchases spike despite sanctions, Gustavo Petro: Leftist ex-rebel wins Colombia's presidential election, violence inside the ‘Tarantula Nebula’ revealed as the most massive stars ever found are born.  Tweet this email  View this email on the web

SPECIAL EDITION: UKRAINE UN: Ukraine war pushes global displaced to record high. Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed global displacement figures to record levels. The conflict has triggered the fastest forced-displacement crisis since World War II. France, Germany, Italy back Ukraine’s EU bid. In Kyiv, EU’s Big Three and Romania endorse candidate status, but war shadows Ukraine’s aspirations. Biden announces additional $1BN in weapons, humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The United States will send more than $1 billion in weapons and humanitarian aid to Ukraine amid the country’s ongoing war with Russia. Hackers crash internet at 'Russian Davos'. Hackers delayed the start of President Vladimir Putin's speech to Russia's flagship economic forum as Russia adjusts to the "new reality" of life under Western sanctions.

CONFLICT Ecuador declares force majeure for oil, state of exception over protests. Indigenous groups launched protests, blocking roads across the country in opposition to Lasso's social and economic policies.  Myanmar junta vow to execute pro-democracy activists. The country has defied repeated appeals from the international community and outraged pro-democracy activists who have spent more than a year under siege. Xi Jinping announces plans to allow Chinese military to undertake 'armed forces operations' abroad. The operations aim to help secure vital transport routes for strategic materials.  Somalia security forces, residents kill 70 militants in attack. Armed residents and local security forces in Somalia's Galmudug state killed 70 Al Shabaab fighters as they repulsed a raid by militants. Negotiations between Ethiopia and Tigrayan forces. Ethiopia's government has formed a committee to negotiate with Tigrayan forces in order to reach a peace agreement with the TPLF (Tigrayan People's Liberation Front).

DEVELOPMENT Africa could feed itself. The continent has enough fertile soil and water to meet its own needs, with some countries having the potential to export. However, hurdles exist in areas of harvesting, technology and trade. Cuba sugar harvest drops 50%. Cuba, once legendary for its sugar cane, produced only about half the sugar it had hoped to this season. The country can cover internal demand, but will fail to make its international commitments. WFP suspends food aid in South Sudan. The World Food Program’s move to suspend aid in South Sudan will affect almost a third of the 6.2 million people in the country. Namibia records surge in rhino poaching. The government says that there is an increase in rhino poaching in the country after discovering 11 carcasses in less than two weeks. After millennia of agricultural expansion, the world has passed ‘peak agricultural land’. The world produces more food than ever, but the amount of land we use is now falling. This means we can feed more people while restoring wild habitat.

ECONOMICS  India's Russian coal purchases spike despite sanctions. India's purchases of Russian coal increased six-fold in recent weeks despite global sanctions on Moscow, as traders offer discounts of up to 30%. Egypt, Israel and the EU sign trilateral Memorandum to supply natural gas. The countries want to further expand the infrastructure for renewable energy. The deal is said to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian gas and improve relations between Egypt and Israel. Russian rouble hits near 7-year high vs dollar as tax payments loom. The Russian rouble surged to a near seven-year high against the dollar, supported by capital controls and the promise of upcoming month-end tax payments. Inflation, growth woes drive European shares down for third week. European stocks edged higher on Friday but posted their third straight week of losses as interest rate hikes from major central banks fuelled worries about a sharp economic slowdown. Global shortages are pushing food producers back toward palm oil. Food producers, responding to consumer demand for sustainable options, have spent years sourcing alternatives to palm oil. Now the war in Ukraine is disrupting more than half the global supply of sunflower oil.

POLITICS Gustavo Petro: Leftist ex-rebel wins Colombia's presidential election. The leftist former mayor of Bogota and ex-rebel fighter has been declared the winner of Colombia's presidential election. Tunisian judges extend strike over sackings. The national strike has been extended for a third week in protest against a decision by President Kais Saied to sack dozens of them. Cuba sentences almost 300 to prison following last year's protests. A total of 297 people have been sentenced to between 5 and 25 years in prison for crimes of sedition, sabotage, robbery with force, and public disorder. Israel set for a general election after Naftali Bennett-led ruling coalition dissolves parliament. Israel's weakened coalition government has decided to dissolve parliament and call a new election, the country's fifth in three years. EU recommends Ukraine and Moldova as membership candidates. The EU's executive recommended that Ukraine and Moldova become candidates for membership, the next step in the process from ex-Soviet republics to developed economies.

SOCIAL Violence inside the ‘Tarantula Nebula’ revealed as the most massive stars ever found are born. Using new observations by its Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) radio telescopes in Chile astronomers were able to unveil intricate details of the Tarantula Nebula’s wispy gas clouds.  China’s zero-COVID policy to stay Into 2023. China’s stringent “zero Covid” policy of travel restrictions and city-wide lockdowns is likely to stretch into next year, and is actively discouraging US and EU investment into the country.  Mystery of Black Death’s origins solved. Researchers believe they have solved the nearly 700-year-old mystery of the origins of the Black Death, the deadliest pandemic in recorded history. 'Online insults' punishable by imprisonment in Japan. Tokyo's parliament confirmed a new ruling declaring "online insults" a crime, punishable by one year in prison. This is a significant increase from existing punishments. Scientists could transform internet by ‘steering’ light. A faster, cheaper and more reliable internet is one of the possible applications of a world-leading light-based technology developed by the Australian National University.

In last week's Future Trends, how much did Russia make from fuel exports in 100 days of Ukraine war? $90bn $95bn $98bn $102bn

NEW REPORT 2022 Global Peace Index Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness and presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies.  This year, the GPI features a special section on the Russia/Ukraine conflict and its broader impact on the world.  Download