Stratfor Worldview: The Weekly Rundown
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Sri Lanka's Mounting Economic Crisis Could Give Way to a Political Reckoning |
The mass protests spurred by Sri Lanka's deepening economic crisis may provide a catalyst for political change, but the country's long-term financial outlook remains grim -- portending more unrest as basic goods and services become increasingly scarce. Social unrest driven by the severe economic crisis in Sri Lanka has morphed into a popular movement demanding political change in the country. In recent days, thousands have protested against the government amid widespread shortages of food, fuel, medicines and power. A combination of economic mismanagement and protracted negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over a bailout package has exacerbated tensions between Sri Lankans and their political leaders in Colombo. Against this backdrop, calls for the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa have grown as the public blames their authoritarian style of leadership for the country's woes. |
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Explosions in Moldova's Breakaway Region Fuel Fears of a Wider Russian War |
While Russia is unlikely to invade Moldova in the short-to-medium term, a series of explosions in a Moldovan breakaway region near Ukraine could eventually grant Moscow a justification for doing so, in addition to destabilizing the pro-EU government in Chisinau. The attacks also risk distracting Kyiv from Russia's renewed offensive in the eastern Donbas region by amplifying the threat to southern Ukraine. A spate of suspicious explosions in the pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region of Transdniestria starting on April 25 has stoked fears that Russia may soon launch an attack toward Transdniestria from the Ukrainian territory it's seized during the ongoing war. The explosions did not result in casualties, but prompted Transdniestria's government to raise the unrecognized republic's terrorist threat level to high and order the erection of checkpoints outside towns and cities and at the borders with the rest of Moldova and Ukraine. |
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In Ethiopia, Ethnic Violence Endures Despite the Government's 'Humanitarian Truce' |
Recent peace initiatives have not quelled ethnic violence in Ethiopia, and a host of complications mean that the war is likely to continue with high humanitarian and economic costs. In late March, the Ethiopian government unilaterally declared it had reached a ''humanitarian truce'' with the rebel forces in Tigray, which some international aid groups had heralded as the beginning of the end to the 18-month war. But violence between ethnic militias throughout the country has nonetheless persisted. Last month, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed also urged all Ethiopians to participate in the national dialogue, which he described as a ''golden opportunity'' that ''will allow us to address the political challenges we have been facing for centuries and lay the groundwork for our future.'' However, the government continues to exclude the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) -- its primary opponent in the ongoing civil conflict – and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) from participating in the process, fueling accusations by both ethnic militant groups that Abiy's supposed push for peace is disingenuous. |
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