The Latest on Southeast AsiaPresident Joe Biden will host most of his counterparts from Southeast Asia for a U.S.-ASEAN Summit in Washington, D.C. on May 12-13. This assembly will likely tackle a range of pressing political and economic challenges, including post-pandemic recovery, the wars in Ukraine and Myanmar, and their economic repercussions. The administration will seek to underscore the importance of the U.S.-ASEAN relationship as part of its broader Indo-Pacific strategy. To that end, it will likely announce new initiatives to build on the more than $100 million in efforts that Biden announced during the October 2021 virtual U.S.-ASEAN Summit. The United States will also likely to seek to elevate its relationship with ASEAN to a “comprehensive strategic partnership”—the same symbolic level attained by Australia and China last year. Eight ASEAN leaders, representing every country except Myanmar and the Philippines, are expected to attend the summit. With the Philippine presidential election taking place on May 9, President Rodrigo Duterte has turned down the invitation to travel to Washington, saying that he would not be able to represent his successor’s strategy toward the United States and ASEAN. Following ASEAN’s own precedent, the United States has refused to invite any member of Myanmar’s junta, but may be open to participation by a non-political representative. Since the February 2021 coup, more than 1,770 people have been killed, 13,000 arrested, and 55,000 displaced by fighting in Myanmar. Summit members are likely to review current policy toward Myanmar, which has failed to make any meaningful progress in implementing the ASEAN “Five Point Consensus” despite the controversial diplomatic outreach by current ASEAN chair Cambodia. The ongoing invasion of Ukraine directly affects Southeast Asia’s economic recovery and is likely to take up a part of the agenda during the summit. Regional reactions to the Russian invasion have varied considerably. As leader of the Group of 20 this year, Indonesia’s president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo faces calls from the United States and other members to disinvite Russia from the fall summit. Instead, Jakarta has reportedly invited Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelensky to attend as a special guest. Cambodia as ASEAN chair and Thailand as APEC chair this year are likely to face similar pressures. The Biden administration will undoubtedly raise its concerns and seek further support from ASEAN countries in denouncing Russia and limiting further engagement. The Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy seeks to leverage bilateral alliances and partnerships, multilateral cooperation through ASEAN, and new mechanisms like the Quad to greatest advantage in the region. The summit and a slew of bilateral meetings on its sidelines will reinforce this multi-track approach to regional diplomacy, as will President Biden’s trip to South Korea and to a Quad summit in Japan a week later. This busy diplomatic calendar shows, in part, that the crisis in Ukraine has not distracted the administration from its long-term focus on the Indo-Pacific as the priority theater of strategic competition. To that end, the coming weeks are also expected to feature a speech by Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the contours of the administration’s China strategy and the public launch of talks on the much-anticipated Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. A recent poll from Gallup shows that the Biden administration’s efforts in the region are being positively received. U.S. leadership is rated more highly across the region than at any time since 2013, with especially notable increases among publics in the Philippines, Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam. The success of U.S.-led economic efforts in the month ahead will go a long way in determining whether that support for American leadership continues to advance or recedes. For more political, economic, and security analysis on the region, check out our blog series, The Latest on Southeast Asia.
New Podcast Episode: Indonesia and the G20 with Dino Patti DjalalGreg and Elina sit down with Dino Patti Djalal, chairman of the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia and former Indonesian ambassador to the United States. They discuss how Indonesia, as president of the G-20 this year, is navigating tensions between member states after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Simon is joined by Drake Tien, research intern for the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS to cover the latest from the region, including the ASEAN Summit as well as leadership changes in Singapore and Timor-Leste. Listen to the new episode here, and join us for Southeast Asia Radio every other Thursday, wherever you get your podcasts. Questions? Comments? Reach us at SEARadio@csis.org.
Spotlight: Malaysiaby Sophie Lemière, Adjunct Fellow (Non-resident), Southeast Asia Program
The 1MDB case, the largest (known) financial scandal in Malaysia’s history, is taking another turn with accusations of corruption and conflicts of interest against Nazlan Ghazali, the judge who sentenced former prime minister Najib Razak. While the controversy could be another attempt by Najib’s circle to delay the case, the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission has opened an investigation against Nazlan. Despite all controversies, Najib’s popularity in the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party is steady. While UMNO leadership announced that Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob will be the party’s candidate for the next general elections, a positive outcome in Najib’s trial and the confirmation of his eligibility to stand in the elections would be a game changer.
Meanwhile, elections will be held next month to (re-)elect the party leadership of the opposition Parti Keadilan Rakyat. While Anwar Ibrahim is the only contestant for the party president post, Rafizi Ramli and Saifuddin Nasution Ismail are waging a war against each other for the deputy president position. Tian Chua, one of the most senior leaders in the party and early companion of Anwar’s Reformasi movement, has decided that he will not seek another term as vice president. Tian has been accused of being part of the Azmin Ali faction that left the party in January 2020 following Mahathir Mohamad’s resignation as prime minister, and he and his team have faced several attempts of expulsion from the party and harsh criticism from other factions. However, Tian has remained in Keadilan and never joined Bersatu, the party where the Azmin faction landed. Tian has thrown his support to Saifuddin to block Rafizi’s way. Rafizi left politics in 2019 in a dramatic announcement but returned to the party earlier this year. Now omnipresent in the media, Rafizi is leading an aggressive campaign. In his move to become deputy president of Keadilan, he hopes to push Anwar into retirement and ultimately take over the party.
Early general elections are expected this year, and all intra-party tensions and maneuvers have intensified. Realignment and new alliances are to be expected in coming months. Though, for now, the former ruling coalition Barisan Nasional is in the most favorable position to reconquer the country.
Sophie Lemière is an adjunct fellow (non-resident) with the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
Spotlight: Vietnam's Missing in Actionby Michael Martin, Adjunct Fellow (Non-resident), Southeast Asia Program April 30 is Reunification Day in Vietnam, a national holiday commemorating the capture of Ho Chi Minh City (formerly known as Saigon) in 1975 and the end of the country’s civil war. While most of the people will be celebrating, tens of thousands of families will be reminded that another year has passed without them being able to provide a proper burial for their loved ones who died in the conflict.
An estimated 3 million Vietnamese died during the Vietnam War. Over 300,000 of those killed are still classified as missing in action (MIA). For five decades, the families of Vietnam’s MIAs have dealt with the heartache not knowing where to find the remains of their deceased sons and daughters, husbands and wives, brothers and sisters, or fathers and mothers.
The Vietnamese government continues in its search to locate and identify the remains of its MIAs. It has received some support from the U.S. government in DNA identification techniques over the last 40 years, but not as much assistance in locating possible burial locations. In July 2021, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III met with Vietnam’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, and National Defense Minister Phan Van Giang to discuss, among other topics, a searchable database of U.S. Department of Defense records to help Vietnam select possible burial sites.
The U.S. Congress has appropriated hundreds of millions of dollars to clean up dioxin “hot spots” created by the spraying of over 10 million gallons of Agent Orange and other herbicides over much of southern Vietnam, as well as to provide medical and health assistance to Vietnamese suffering from diseases related to dioxin exposure. In addition, Congress has appropriated tens of millions of dollars to assist Vietnam in removing unexploded ordnance (UXO) and provide medical treatment to people who have been injured by UXO. To date, the U.S. government has provided only a few million dollars to help Vietnam find and identify its MIAs.
Vietnam’s generous offer to help the United States locate and repatriate its MIAs was a critical factor in the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two nations. The U.S. government in recent years has shown a willingness to address two of the three War Legacy issues: Agent Orange/dioxin and UXO. Perhaps it is time the U.S. government step up its efforts regarding Vietnam’s MIAs and provide some of the tens of thousands of Vietnamese families some peace. Michael F. Martin is an adjunct fellow (non-resident) with the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C
Commentary: Japan’s Crucial Role in Southeast Asia amid the Ukraine WarRussia’s attack on Ukraine is a moment of reckoning for many international bodies. The implications of the crisis range from questioning the viability of the rules-based order and the fitness of the United Nations system to challenging the concepts of war and defense. And these debates are unfolding as countries face the trickle-down economic effects of sanctions on Russia and other disruptions. As the international community takes different positions on this conflict, the role of influential actors is even more critical. And Japan—both capable and willing to bridge the growing fissure—is increasingly taking on that role. Read the latest by Huong Le Thu (adjunct fellow, non-resident, Southeast Asia Program) here.
ICYMI: Book Event: Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran's "Elusive Balances: Shaping U.S.-Southeast Asia Strategy"The latest release from Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran, Elusive Balances: Shaping U.S.-Southeast Asia Strategy, undertakes an in-depth examination of the dynamics of commitment in U.S.-Southeast Asia strategy since the end of the Vietnam War to current times. The CSIS Southeast Asia Program was pleased to host a moderated discussion with Dr. Parameswaran and Gregory Poling on key findings from the book. Based on hundreds of conversations with policymakers and experts across the United States and Southeast Asia, it applies a new and original “balance of commitment” foreign policy model across administrations. Watch the event on-demand here. |
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